Introduction:
Despite
the truce agreement, which was followed by the Israeli aggression on
the Gaza Strip the end of 2008 / early 2009, the Israeli attacks have
continued on the sector, such as assassinations and shooting at those
who enter the buffer zone imposed by Israel along the land border of the
Strip, and the fishermen who exceed three miles line freely.
However,
throughout the two years since Operation Cast Lead, said leading
figures in al-Qassam Brigades, they were deliberately ignoring the
Israeli attacks, calling it provocative acts to push them into battle
unprepared her [1] . Although
it has received limited and sporadic escalation and confrontation in
the months 3, 4 and 8 in 2011 and in 3 months and 10 in 2012 waves.
However,
it became clear to Israel that its potential for deterrence was fade
with the advent of more sophisticated weapons in the Gaza Strip, with
the rise in the number of released, including missiles; In 2010 was the
launch of a 360 shell, and in the year 2011 was launched 675 shell, and
in the first ten months of 2012 included shells of more than 500 larger
proportion of longer-term missiles; which Israel promised military and
political threat growing [2] .
First, the course of aggression
"Pillar
of cloud" process begun by the Israeli label on 14/11/2012
assassination of a number of military leaders of the Hamas movement, led
by Ahmed Jabari, commander Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, targeting what
Israel believes that missile storage places long-range missiles and
launchers.
And
led the Israeli aggression on Gaza killed 162 Palestinians, including
42 children and 11 women, and 18 elderly, while the number of injured
stood at 1222, including 431 children, 207 women and 88 elderly [3] . The
Israeli army attacked during the offensive about 1500 target in the
sector, including government buildings, and tunnels, and rocket
launchers, and houses, and prominent activists, and stores of weapons [4] .
In
the Israeli side has a "stone Shale," according to label the
Palestinian resistance, led to the deaths of six Israelis, including two
soldiers [5] , While the number of wounded reached 240 Israelis [6] , According to Israeli sources. It
also fell on Israel about 1506 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip,
targeting the south settlements surrounding the sector, as well as Tel
Aviv and Jerusalem [7] . According to calculations of Economic Sciences Inc. (BDI), which conducted on 17.11.2012, the cost of the process, "the pillar of cloud" and amounted to 1.1 billion shekels in a week [8] .
Second, the basic objectives of the parties and their environment and their negotiating positions:
A.
Israel:
· Goals
Select Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak four
goals of the aggression on Gaza, which followed the assassination of
Jabari; is: "Strengthening our deterrent, and inflict great harm network
launch rockets, and directing a painful blow to Hamas and other
terrorist organizations, and reduce damage internal Bjbhtna" [9] It is believed that these goals are not set up
enough to achieve due to the lack of readiness of Israel to fight an
open war with the Palestinian resistance movements.
And come in the same context Amos
Yadlin's remarks, the former chairman of Israel's military intelligence,
who felt that the primary goal of the process is the ability of Shell
Palestinian organizations on the use of the system long-term strategic
missiles that have, for adding to the retrieval of Israel's ability to deterrence in face [10] . It
is expected that the objectives of aggression also included testing the
attitudes and responses of the new Egyptian regime acts and test the
effectiveness of the Iron Dome system.
·
Negotiating environment:
Saw Israel that the behavior of Hamas in the
Gaza Strip is approaching in many aspects of the conduct of the State,
in terms of responsibility for the management of the sector and ensure
the safety of its residents and their livelihoods, an issue that has not
been lost on Israel, which called for the movement during the truce
negotiations to assume the responsibility to prevent the firing of
rockets and the continuation of the next truce thinking [ 12] .
The approach of the Israeli elections,
which was scheduled in January / January 2013, increased the stresses
and stricter ruling Likud Party, which is based on based on the
stability and security platform behavior.
In addition to that he had crystallized opinion in
Israel after the Arab revolutions should not allow the new regional
situation limiting Israel's ability to act militarily, and the need to
move to reinstall the rules of the game which will control the Middle
East emerging [13] .
Israel and met with US and European support and
clear during its aggression; where US President Barack Obama said in a
conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 16
November / November 2012 US support for Israel's right to defend itself,
and expressed regret for the casualties of the Israelis and the
Palestinians [14] , As the Council of Foreign Ministers of the
European Union announced on November 19 / November 2012 violent
Palestinian missile attack against Israel guilty recognized its right to
defend its citizens, but at the same time called for an immediate halt
to violence [15] .
However, the impact of the telephone conversation
between President Obama and Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi on
11/19/2012 seemed clear that the United States has been pressing Israel
to avoid the expansion of the military operation; where it was clear
that a ground operation will lead to a large number of Israeli
casualties and would cause embarrassment Egypt politically and
complicate relations with the United States [16] .
·
Negotiating positions:
Based on the above, Israel has emerged during the
negotiations that led to the truce understandings number of negotiating
positions, most notably:
1. Stop the firing of rockets by Hamas and the Palestinian factions factions.
2. Stop targeting Israeli soldiers on the border by Hamas and the Palestinian factions factions.
3. Israel's right to hot pursuit in case it was attacked or had information about the attack.
4. Stop the entry of arms into the Gaza Strip immediately, and any new weapons is a violation of the truce.
5. Be
a political level in Egypt (represented by President Mohamed Morsi) is
the guarantor of this agreement and not the Egyptian security services,
care of any political, not security.
It
is noteworthy that Israel preferred sufficiency understandings oral,
written and avoid conditions restricting the freedom of the Israeli
military action in the future for the United States and Egypt; the
written document in this way the prime minister and his cabinet will be
presented for criticism in front of the Israeli public [17] ,
Is that the Israeli government eventually agreed to in writing the
terms have not been signed by all parties concerned, where he kept each
party with a copy of these terms or "understandings" that have been
distributed officially in the press conference between the Egyptian
Foreign Minister, US Secretary of State in what was considered
alternative written signature that the Palestinian and Israeli parties
have not prepared him at that time.
B. Hamas:
·
Objectives:
The main objectives of
the Hamas movement has been to: lifting of Israeli restrictions on the
exploitation of the borderline of the separation, and the expansion of
the maritime borders of Gaza and stop the Israeli attacks and
assassinations.
·
negotiating environment:
Hamas helped escalation aware that
Israel has no realistic alternative can take charge of the Gaza Strip;
leadership of Fatah and the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah is too
weak to dominate the sector, and Egypt is ready to assume full
responsibility for the sector, and Israel does not want to re-occupation [18] .
Hamas also managed the
negotiations indirect with Israel, this time under the Egyptian
political supporter and Igathia position; where Egypt has sought to
speed the cease-fire and to avoid escalation after several calls
received by Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi of US President Barack
Obama to mediate in order to reach a truce agreement; and emerged
Egyptian political reference for the Palestinians through the load
Egyptian President Israel responsible for the breach of the ceasefire
and the start of the aggression, and warned of the serious consequences
of any Israeli ground attack on Gaza, in a news conference with Turkish
Prime Minister [19] .
In addition, the Egyptian prime
minister's visit to Gaza during the Israeli aggression, and the
coordination of Egypt visit of Turkish Foreign Minister and the
Secretary General of the Arab League with ten of Arab foreign ministers
to the Gaza Strip, and to facilitate the sending of medical and relief
aid.
In a gesture to show the shift in
the Egyptian position and during the ceasefire negotiations in Cairo,
Israeli officials have been forced to hide their presence, while
stopping Hamas leaders in front of the cameras with some of the most
powerful leaders of the countries in the region [20] .
Also seen days of aggression on
the Gaza Strip in solidarity and sympathy with the popular Strip uncle
of many countries in the Arab and Muslim world and the world.
It could be argued that the
Israeli aggression on Gaza resulted in policies and attitudes of Arab
differ from its predecessor may represent an opportunity for the
formation of an Arab bloc serves as the power required to impose new
policies in dealing with the Palestinian cause and the Arab-Israeli
favor of the Arab project and Palestinian rights in the coming years.
·
Negotiating positions:
Hence, it was the most prominent Hamas negotiating positions
2. Stop assassinations
3. Halt Israeli incursions in the Gaza area.
4. Lift the siege on the Gaza Strip.
5. Stop the attacks on fishermen and the cease-fire.
6. Egyptian and international guarantees.
Hamas has insisted on a paper detailing the achievements that may be obtained in exchange for a cease-fire, also requested a comprehensive agreement and general cease-fire and opposed the agreement in two phases.
Third: the text of the truce understandings [22] :
Aggression
ended following an agreement or understandings of the truce sponsored
by Egypt, was declared during a joint news conference collect Egyptian
Foreign Minister, US Secretary of State in Cairo, the evening of
11/22/2012, provided for the following:
1. Israel
to cease all hostilities by land, sea and air against the Gaza Strip,
including invasions and operations targeting individuals.
2. The
Palestinian factions to cease all hostilities from Gaza towards Israel,
including rocket fire and attacks on the border line.
3.
Opening the
crossings and facilitating the movement of people, goods, and not to
restrict the movement of people or targeted in the border areas and
dealing with the implementation of the action 24 hours after the
agreement enters into force.
4. Be dealt with other issues if they are requested.
The parties agreed
to set the zero hour to enter the understandings of the truce went into
effect, with Egypt's access to guarantees from all parties to abide by
what has been agreed upon, and the commitment of each party not to
undertake any actions which are contrary to the understandings, and in
the case of any Notes are referenced to Egypt sponsor understandings to
follow it.
Fourth: the fundamental gains of the Parties:
A.
Israel gains:
Israel won many of the gains of aggression and understandings of the ceasefire; notably:
1- Stop firing rockets and mortars from the Gaza Strip.
2- Israel
has proven its ability to do large-aggression while retaining the
strong US support and European; although regional developments imposed
by the Arab Spring.
3. The
system "Iron Dome"
has played an important and influential role in achieving the goal of
"deterrence," which sought Israel's military terms specifically, as it
reduced the losses that could be incurred as a result of shells and
rockets fired from Gaza . [23] . Israeli officials
claim that the Iron Dome intercepted on average 42 percent of the
shells, and that the reason for a decrease in the number of Israelis
killed.
4
The success of the
Iron Dome Shall Takd- could reduce Israel's fears of the Lebanese
resistance missiles, and thus may increase the ability to carry out
aggression against Iran if it received the approval of Washington.
5. Reached
a ceasefire agreement with the participation of Hamas, unlike Israel
unilaterally to end its offensive in Gaza in January / January 2009, as a
result of United Nations Resolution 1860.
6- Included
a ceasefire US safeguards agreement, between both Israel and the United
States, working to prevent the arrival of weapons to Hamas in Gaza,
which refers to the growing role of the United States in any crisis
related to the Gaza Strip and Hamas in the future, which is a win-win
situation Israelis [24] .
Press
reports have spoken to Obama told Netanyahu that he would support
Israel's right to self-defense if it violates the cease-fire, and that
US aid to Israel will increase, including the provision of additional
funding for the dome of iron and other anti-missile systems, and that
the United States will help in preventing the smuggling of weapons to
Gaza Strip [25] .
In contrast, Some Israelis believed that Israel
had missed the opportunity to have a direct dialogue with the political
parties in Egypt, and not with the part of the security apparatus, in
order to establish a political relationship with the new regime in
Egypt, led by Mohamed Morsi " [26] , Which is entirely avoidable
Egyptian party; where limited negotiations on the US side (the US
President and Secretary of State).
B. Hamas gains:
In turn, Hamas won many of the gains from the round of escalation and the ceasefire agreement; notably:
1- Stop the assassinations and the Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip.
2.
facilitate the movement of people and goods across the Gaza crossings, including the Rafah crossing.
3.
restore insulating
tape which Israel was to prevent the entry of Palestinians, which varies
in width between 300-1500 meters along the Gaza border.
4
Expand the scope of fishing allowed from the 3 miles to 6 nautical miles.
5.
Palestinian
recognition and recognition of the important international parties (such
as the United States, the European Union and Egypt) led the movement in
the Gaza Strip and its ability to rule.
6-
Strengthening the
political position of Hamas by the support of the Egyptian movie earned,
and the American support for the indirect negotiations with them.
7.
Increase the popularity of the movement largely in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
8.
Hamas emerged
victorious politically by demonstrating its ability to survive and
attract unprecedented international attention and reduce the political
role of Mahmoud Abbas and the PA in Ramallah to reach a ceasefire
agreement.
9. Israel
to impose political victory in the confrontation has not been able to
excel in spite of the forces of fire and the lack of strategic military
balance in accordance with the standards wars.
10.
Hamas
was able to take the fight to the depth of Israel, and thus exceeded
the number of "red lines" Casthdav Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, which
enhanced the relative deterrence for Israel to engage in extensive and
decisive battle with the Palestinian resistance movements.
This
feeling of victory expressed by Hamas certainly that "the most
important results of this process: to prove the ability of the
resistance to respond, and the arrival of the resistance missiles to Tel
Aviv and Jerusalem; and drop arguments that the resistance has ended or
that what happened in Syria has affected the resistance; and the
formation of Arab safety net is now embraces the project resisting
Israeli aggression and occupation, and that the existence of the overall
resistance is the right choice at this stage; where armed resistance to
mate with the Popular Resistance " [27] .
Fifth, the current strategic landscape
Number
of Israeli analysts believe that the process of full deterrence, which
Israel claimed it targeted, did not materialize because of lack of
success in targeting the vital goals of Hamas in Gaza, as happened in
the Second Lebanon War, the summer of 2006, where he destroyed the
Israeli Air Force a lot of strength of the Lebanese resistance In
Beirut, which is resulting in what has become known as the "southern
suburbs" effect later; however, Israel has managed to achieve deterrence
can only be described as "unstable deterrence", and therefore calls for
the Israeli security authorities appeared to develop a unified and
powerful system for "deterrence" Hamas in the future, especially as the
frequency in the decision to activate the ground forces, during this
aggression, which has destabilized the possibility of achieving real
deterrence against Hamas [28] .
It
can be seen features to the trends of the parties to the conflict after
the aggression, through statements and studies evaluate the
confrontation and make recommendations and policies for the coming
period:
·
Israeli orientations
Popped
features of Israeli attitudes to deal with the Gaza Strip file through
invitations to strengthen deterrence in different ways; such as raising
the siege and the treatment of Gaza as a state run by Hamas, or
directing harsh blows to Hamas and strengthening the PA in Ramallah,
while avoiding return to occupy the Gaza Strip, and the fight against
the smuggling of weapons to him, and the need to maintain Israel on its
ability to contain the military confrontations that take the initiative
to in one front.
In
the first direction called Giora Eiland, former President of the
Israeli National Security Council, to deal with the Gaza Strip as a
state under the control of Hamas, and lifting the naval blockade in
exchange for a cease-fire a long-term, and that this agreement should be
guarantees of Egypt to maintain calm and prevent entry of arms, and
that allows the Member States of the European Union to send ships
escorted by the police forces of the country to the port of Gaza, and
which aims to ensure that this perception is Hamas has something to lose
if the breach of the cease-fire . [29] .
Amos
Yadlin also saw, the former head of the Division of Military
Intelligence (Aman), that "given that the behavior of Hamas in Gaza
looks like state behavior it is Israel must be exploited in order to
claim the movement to assume their responsibilities." [30] However, Yadlin calls for the opposite approach to achieve through "that
the Israeli strategy include« carrot »to moderate elements in the
Palestinian Authority in order to strengthen their position, and
directing too harsh strikes against Palestinian extremist terrorist
elements in order to weaken it" . And Israel declares that launch missiles at Tel Aviv is the "line of red ", while
avoiding the return for the decision to break away from the Strip,
which form "an important strategic process served the security of the
state of Israel", in addition to the
need to "conduct research in Israel about the impact of military
operations and results of the future elections in the Palestinian
Authority and the prospects for Palestinian reconciliation " . proposing adoption of three central strategies "to prevent the growing strength of organizations, and especially Hamas, prevent the entry of weapons into the Gaza Strip by the invasion of Barre, and attack methods of transfer of weapons from Iran and even the Gaza Strip, and the deposit of this task, however, third-party such as the United Nations. " [31] .
In contrast, Yadlin called to search in the size of the use of the Iron Dome in the light of the
large cost ($ 50 thousand cost of the launch of each missile) against
the relatively small cost of missiles, he said, adding that Israel has
succeeded since the end of the 1973 war "to contain the military
confrontations that initiated it in the front and one , and this is a
very important strategic achievement, but may not in any way be seen
that is a foregone conclusion. " He explained that the
"strategic interests and connections are correct with neighboring
countries, limited in scope and operations, and a strong deterrent to
terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, the Israeli army was granted
the freedom to work in the front and one" [32] .
It should be noted that Israel
is interested in the medium term the West Bank more than attention to
Gaza, if Israel has ensured a long-term truce in Gaza, they will invest
in the West Bank in more settlements, and investment continued
Palestinian division, to weaken both sides of the Palestinian dispute
and get more concessions from by the Palestinian Authority, especially
in subjects refugees, the borders and Jerusalem . [33] .
·
Palestinian trends
Likely
that the Hamas clicking on Egypt to open the crossing, and assess the
extent of the qualitative leap made by after losing the ally of Syria
and strained relations with Iran, and to know how much power the new
partners, and whether the strengths they possess - the regional
political weight; human resources; and legitimacy Atah- will be more
useful than one that was owned by Damascus and Tehran . [34] .
In
strategies after the war that would be taking Hamas, Palestinian Prime
Minister pointed out in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, to track the legal
prosecution of the leaders of the occupation and the completion of the
Palestinian reconciliation, and not to stand in the face of the
orientation of the United Nations, openness and meet more with the
nation. [35]
It
is crucial in determining the Palestinian attitudes to know what is the
time horizon that Hamas need for a truce, if the long-lived, it involves
a big risk because they will turn to what could be considered a
"cessation of resistance", while likely medium-term truce debate, but
the pursuit of Hamas to escalation In the short term it is problematic
in terms of the ability of the Egyptian position to afford it . [36] .
Conclusion:
The
form of the Israeli aggression test of various actors in the
Arab-Israeli conflict, and to determine the changes in the balance of
power and the limits of freedom of the Israeli movement following the
Arab Spring, and is not expected that this round is ultimately in the
Israeli attacks; it is likely that Israel does not accept to give up the
use of security tools, including assassinations, and constantly
develops weapons stockpile in Gaza, both quantitatively and
qualitatively.
In
turn, Hamas will not accept a cease-armed, and will not be able to play
the role of the policeman who prevents Salafist organizations and
Islamic Jihad from firing rockets at Israel over any Israeli aggression.
In
addition, there are ambiguities in the agreement, can tolerate several
explanations, such as the subject of the crossings; it did not specify
any crossings will be opened and when, and what are the goods that will
be allowed to be exported in any direction, Will allow Gazans to travel
to the West Bank and parts of 48? [37]
However,
the return-Egyptian-American cooperation to maintain security, and the
ability of Obama and Morsi, who are keen to maintain calm, to put
pressure on the parties, in addition to the fact that the cease-fire a
written agreement for the first time, pushing to prevent a broad attack
on the Gaza Strip, which is enhanced by chances in the event of
cessation of Israeli attacks and assassinations already, and the opening
of Gaza crossings, where you will then Hamas to maintain the cease-fire
for a longer period.
* This is a report prepared. Ghazi Mohammed Jamal assistant researcher at the center, and was reviewed and edited by d. Abdul Hamid Kayali unit manager Palestinian and Israeli Studies at the center.
[1] Interviews conducted by the International Crisis
Group with members of the Qassam Brigades in Gaza and Damascus, the
International Crisis Group report entitled "Gaza: Israeli-Palestinian war coming?" In:
[2] See: The International Crisis Group report, "Israel and Hamas .. fire and a cease-fire in the Middle East الجديد" في: http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Israel%20Palestine/Arabic%20translations/133-israel-and-hamas-fire-and-ceasefire-in-a-new-middle-east-arabic.pdf
[3] Agency Jerusalem News, 11/22/2012, see: Http://www.alqudsnews.net/i/18991 (a statistics of the Palestinian Health Ministry in the Gaza Strip).
[5] BBC News channel in English, 22.11.2012, see: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20444499
[7] Israeli Channel Ten site in Hebrew, 11.22.2012, see: Http://news.nana10.co.il/Article/?ArticleID=939466
[9] Israeli government site, for more أنظر: http://www.altawasul.com/MFAAR/government/communiques++and+policy+statements/2012/IDF-announcment-Pillar-of-Defence-15112012 .
[10] See: Site of the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies in: Http://www.inss.org.il/research.php?cat=7&incat=&read=10574
[11] See: Site of the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies in: Http://www.inss.org.il/upload/(FILE)1357119492.pdf
[12] See: Amos Yadlin,, With Resolve, Good Judgment, and Deliberate Speed, INSS Insight No. 385, November 15, 2012, see: http://www.inss.org.il/publications.php?cat=21&incat=&read=10574
[14] See the White House Web site في: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/11/16/readout-president-s-phone-call-prime-minister-netanyahu-israel
[15] See: EU foreign ministers at the Council site: Http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/133587.pdf
[16] See, Oded Eran, the Israeli Center for National Security Studies, at the site: http://www.inss.org.il/research.php?cat=7&incat=&read=10607
[17] See: Nahum Barnea, everyone wants to get out well,
Yedioth, 11/21/2012, and see: Eli Brdnstein, at the last minute: the
dispute between Hamas and Israel to prevent the truce, Maariv,
11/21/2012
[20] See: International Crisis "Israel and Hamas, op. Cit., P. 7 Group report.
[21] Points 1, 2, 4.6 by Izzat Middle Hamas official, Life (London) 11/19/2012
[22] See Haaretz newspaper in English, 21.11.2012, in: Http://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/1.1870846 , and the Maariv newspaper site in Hebrew: Http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART2/417/475.html , and the Palestinian Center for Media http://www.palinfo.com/site/pic/newsdetails.aspx?itemid=124975 with
Note that cited the phrase "the Palestinian factions to cease all
attacks from the Gaza Strip," instead of "all hostilities."
[23] See: Jephthah Shabbir, site of the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies in: http://www.inss.org.il/upload/(FILE)1357119492.pdf
[24] Oded Eran, the site of the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies in: Http://www.inss.org.il/upload/(FILE)1357119492.pdf
[26] See site of the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies in: Http://www.inss.org.il/upload/(FILE)1357119492.pdf
[27] See: Osama Hamdan, international relations official in Hamas, Zaytuna Center for Studies in the site: Http://www.alzaytouna.net/permalink/35524.html#.UTGSU6JHKGM
[28] See: Avner Golov, site of the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies in: Http://www.inss.org.il/upload/(FILE)1357119492.pdf
[30] See site of the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies in: http://www.inss.org.il/research.php?cat=7&incat=&read=10574
[31] See site of the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies in: http://www.inss.org.il/upload/(FILE)1357119492.pdf
[32] See site of the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies in: Http://www.inss.org.il/upload/(FILE)1357119492.pdf
[35] See site Sama news agency in http://samanews.com/index.php?act=Show&id=151876
[36] See site Zaytuna Center for Studies, op.
No comments:
Post a Comment