China's impending financial crisis - (repost)
Kaylee new "speculative gambling new economy" of Chapter V
Jin Guantao: economic liberalism end? - Kaylee "speculative gambling new economy" Preamble
Speculative gambling disguise fair economic trap - Kaylee "speculative gambling new economy" Book ReviewOnce upon a time, Mexico has abundant natural resources, cheap labor and open markets, attracting international capital park. In the early 1990s, the Bank for International Settlements assess "external deficit and the macro and micro economic base in Mexico, no matter what standards are healthy." Mexico is widely regarded as a "third-world model in emerging markets." "Many observers mistakenly believe that Mexico will soon be among the ranks of developed countries." 2
Rates obtained in the United States and Mexico, obtained in the presence of rate differences. Therefore, it is possible in 1994 in New York City with 5-6% interest rate to borrow money, and invest in interest rates in Mexico get it reached 12 to 14%. In 1990 to 1993, the inflow of investment in Mexico reached $ 91 billion, is a fifth of all net capital flows to developing countries. Two thirds of investment securities, and of which most of the investment in the Mexican stock market, stock prices started soaring. In three years time, in dollar terms, Mexico's stock market prices rose 436 percent. 3
In 1993, overseas investors bought 50% of shares in Mexico and 25 percent of government bonds. "Investment securities and money market accounts for more than half of speculative investments that year the total inflow of foreign investment." US $ 45 billion investment in Mexico, of which twenty billion portfolio. Mexico stock price soared 63%. 41994, joined the "North American Free Trade Agreement" entered into force, the US government subsidized agricultural exports invincible, Mexican agricultural or suffer destruction. 5 Then the peasant uprising in Chiapas Chau entitled not starve, is to ask "share prosperity," inequality is not scarcity. Then, the general secretary of the ruling party presidential candidate and has assassinated. Then, the United States to raise interest rates, prompting some foreign reflux. In order to improve the international balance of payments, the Mexican government devalued the peso, increased flight of foreign capital. "Soros and other speculators also looting in the forex market a large sell-peso." The Mexican government billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves depleted, stopping foreign short selling, stock market crash, currency devaluation, "Long Tongue wine effect" spread in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru. 6
Reform and opening up the rapid development of material production, financial liberalization monetary economic prosperity prostitution Sheng (chase), foreign short-selling financial crisis brought (sell), which is developing the first modern trilogy, a contemporary all "emerging markets" without exception fate. "Attack the possibility of self-realization means that any instability - economic, financial, political - are likely to be reflected afterwards on a country's currency." 7 financial crisis hard to detect.
Table 1-6: the world financial crisis, from 1975 to 1997
|Crisis Category||States are||Times of crisis||The average direct loss to GDP ratio (%)||Average indirect losses GDP (%)|
|Monetary crisis||Industrialized country||42||3.1||5.6|
|Emerging market countries||116||4.8||7.6|
|Currency collapse||Industrialized country||13||5.0||8.0|
|Emerging market countries||42||7.9||10.7|
|Banking crisis||Industrialized country||12||10.2||15.2|
|Emerging market countries||42||12.1||14.0|
|Currency and banking crises||Industrialized country||6||15.6||17.6|
|Emerging market countries||16||13.6||18.8|
Source: International Monetary Fund: "World Economic Outlook", 1998 of 5,11 (leaf rising: "International Capital Formation and Economic Development" on page 283).
Table 1-6 is the IMF's statistics. 1975 to 1997, 289 countries in the world financial crisis, the average 13 cases per year. From 73 industrialized countries, emerging market countries from 216. The latter is three times as much. "Developing countries and countries with economies in transition recent currency crises, which is obviously related to rapid capital market liberalization." 8 especially after the Cold War ended, a large crisis continued year after year. 91989 ~ 1990 Japan's bubble economy burst, from 1992 to 1993, the disintegration of the European exchange rate mechanism, the Mexican financial crisis in 1994, from 1997 to 1998 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian financial crisis, the 1999 financial crisis in Brazil, the United States from 2000 to 2001 stock market crash, the 2001 financial crisis in Turkey, Argentina's financial crisis in 2002, China was the last one ...... the financial crisis has not been ransacked virgin.
After the global financial instability in terms of this particular issue, Robert Rubin in 1998 raised the need to establish a new international financial framework, led to a brief but serious wave of creative thinking. But with the 1999 to 2000 most East Asian economies to achieve rapid and robust recovery, which shares the wave of reform of the international financial system gradually died down. 10
5.1 Financial Crisis doomed?In 1994, Friedman quote Keynes:
To subvert the existing basis of society, ruining the currency Nothing is more subtle and more social way of insurance. This process led to the economic law of all the destructive power of the hidden side of it is, no one can figure out a way to do this. 11
At the beginning of 1993, Chinese foreign investment to keep the world's second, for 14 years. In 2001, China's accession to WTO. After 30 years of reform and opening up, the economy, there is no piece of children and international practice? International and domestic, well aware. Financial market trading currency, the yuan domestic prices - interest rates, international prices - the exchange rate, the market has yet to adjust. Futures market after the first switch, no time to develop derivatives. Compared with the increasingly large import and export volume and material production, great development potential monetary economy.
So, to promote universal banking, international futures out of the country, 12 open financial services, joint ventures, foreign domestic market, an open invitation to the internationally renowned fund management company partnership, foreign securities joint venture into the stock market, 13 foreign banks weave mesh points, 14 advance interest rate reform, financial innovation stock index, index futures, A shares, B shares merger ripe, currency futures, interest rate futures and options trading, capital account convertibility, naturally, became the international and domestic industry inside and outside of eager waiting . Financial liberalization and opening up of the people, the financial market boom prostitution Sheng curtain has been opened!
Dayang reported that the central bank recently released "2006 International Financial Market Report" revealed that it would take to expand the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) quota and the development of the futures market QFII system, etc., and gradually expand the overseas Chinese participants financial market participation.
The central bank's report noted that the gradual expansion of foreign participants in China's financial markets, and steadily promote capital account convertibility of the RMB.
The central bank said it would gradually increase the QFII quota; increased foreign investment can be involved in the transaction market varieties, relax foreign capital into China's financial markets eligibility restrictions; QFII quota established futures markets; the development of gold futures and options derivatives, foreign investment banks involved in the transaction of the gold market, and the gradual liberalization of the gold import and export restrictions; for foreign participants to take advantage of the domestic market to raise funds to provide greater convenience, allowing the proceeds to purchase foreign exchange remitted.
The central bank also said it would allow domestic enterprises to take advantage of overseas futures markets to hedge overseas futures business to expand the scope of licensing; increase the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) the number and amount; allow overseas futures institutions through the establishment of a joint venture with domestic futures companies in the form of domestic futures business conduct; allowing companies to set up operations overseas futures institutions in Hong Kong and other places, to carry out overseas futures business; gradually relaxed institutions and individuals to invest in overseas financial market size, species and other restrictions.
The central bank said that support Chinese companies to "A + H" approach issued simultaneously inside and outside the market, but also support the H-share domestic issue A shares and red chips listed in the territory; promote other foreign institutions in the issuance of RMB denominated bonds and other securities products; promote the territory funds, securities companies to set up subsidiaries or joint ventures abroad, study abroad fund companies to raise funds to invest in the domestic market. 15
"Aware of the tiger, undeterred." Monetary economy development times, increasing the risk of financial turmoil. "Financial crisis is actually a" rich man's disease ", where poverty and famine only occurs shortage, the financial crisis never happened." 16 and "most recent boom and bust phenomenon occurred in fiscal and monetary policy, and moral hazard countries are in a better level. "17 financial turmoil volume of money necessary assets financialization. Back in "1992, more than US financial assets to GDP is 326, Japan 392; the same period (1991) China Taiwan 250, Republic of Korea is 436.4, China was also up to 232." 18 With this basic idea, In 2006, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Warrants traded $ 243.9 billion, the world's first. 192,006 in the first 11 months, a limited number of mainland commodities futures trading volume more than 19 trillion yuan. 202,007 in April Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market capitalization of over Hong Kong. Twenty one
To box child money, the financial crisis in developed countries, the financial crisis is, at most, a worsening economic crisis. Financial crisis in developing countries, the economic crisis is not only often, and often progressive into social unrest, regime change, split the motherland. The assertion of Western political science, economic development in developing countries, per capita wealth reaches so many dollars, but into the social unrest-prone period. 22 more sustained and rapid development, GDP, more and more rich-poor divide, rampant corruption and more serious, naturally provoke foreign "large quantities" mix back and forth. In general, foreign short selling enough to shake the financial markets, an atmosphere of. Twenty three
It is worth comparing Japan and Indonesia, are the Asian countries, it is 200 million people. A low-developed countries, a high-speed developing countries. The former economic strength stronger than a lot of the latter, four decades depression, although personally say "no" lack of confidence, and as usual can by saying "yes" Hujiahuwei. Comparing the two, Indonesia appalling. Qingping end of the financial turmoil, the IMF intervention outrageous, this reform, opening up the three get two get comprehensive economic crisis. Rainforest, sparsely populated, suddenly let the market do not have to adjust the rice on. Originally serious polarization, burning firewood into the eternal fire flutter. Longtenghuyue social unrest, political power to subvert their feet. Economic miracle of Suharto, 32-year performance written off. Children engage in corruption, can not escape justice sentencing, has not yet completed the program, split the motherland. 24 To be sure, if not decisive Mahathir exchange controls, the end was not much better than the neighbors. Chinese in Malaysia, Indonesia trip was done repeatedly looting rape probably doomed.
Continental sustained rapid economic development, so that financial predators mouth water "pie" bigger and bigger. After 30 years of reform and opening-interest-driven, personal interests, corporate interests, local interests, departmental interests increasingly clear that national interests, national interests and public interests increasingly blurred. Daily reported serious loss of state assets, edgy "private property is inviolable" into the Constitution. Noisy 25 day amnesty amnesty Huagongweisi's "original sin" bad bank diehard nature. In 1999, the establishment of four financial asset management companies, stripping four state-owned banks bad debts 1.8 trillion yuan. Dai relieved: "By stripping non-performing assets of state-owned commercial banks, the proportion of non-performing loans fell by nearly ten percentage points." September 2001, less than two years, the four state-owned banks' non-performing loans to 1.8 trillion, accounting for 26.62% of total loans, about the loss of which has actually formed accounted for 7% of total loans. " In less than 26 years, "according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission statistics, as of the end of June 2003, the territory of four state-owned commercial banks, three policy banks and 11 joint-stock commercial banks' bad loans total 2.54 trillion yuan, non-performing loan ratio was 19.6%. "27 This is the official statistics. Folk foreigner estimate "of state-owned enterprises accounted for 40% of total non-performing loans to total loans of state-owned banks." 282 006 years, the four state-owned banks shareholding reform, successfully listed at home and abroad, provision stripping stripping provision of non-performing loan ratio Pressure to 9.3%. 29 Surprisingly, Ernst & Young Building admit, insisted that the Chinese banking system's non-performing loans,
1997 China reason escaped infection Asian financial crisis was the main reason for China's strict capital controls and comprehensive, international hot money is no free access to Chinese channels, otherwise we can not escape it unscathed! On China's current economic situation, China's problems in the current period, the defect is not less than the 1997 Southeast Asian countries, and even more. 32
The financial turmoil sweeping the globe, all over the world several times already plundered. South America is the third trip, and Russia was not spared, not even the closest ally of US imperialism - the United Kingdom, and Western Europe, NATO one, so the Bank of Thailand to wash a big partner of Soros. Looking around the neighborhood, the only remaining mainland. Undervaluation strong, GDP growth of 8 to 10 percent, from 20 to 40% of bad debts. Old accounts outstanding, gave birth to a new account. Everything is ready, only one east of capital account convertibility of. To this end, the Asian financial crisis in full swing, IMF set to convene general meetings of unity, victory Assembly, issued a "Temporary Committee on IMF agreement to modify the free flow of capital to realize that" officially "will promote capital projects liberalization as a specific target in the IMF and the IMF authorized capital flows to be properly managed. "33 Needless to say, some speculative gambling new economy trying every solution technique, made with cheap labor cheap manufacturing trade surplus that matter to form internal and external pressure forced Japan to more than coercion, struggling to shove China's financial reform and opening.
Sure enough, in 2003, took the lead in Japan suffered a major loss, "to draw in other countries through an agreement with the Japanese one, want to force China to revalue its currency, like the Western countries in 1985 signed the" Plaza Accord "forced to revalue the yen as . "34 Since then, the Group of Seven leaders, US President (including former President Gerald Ford, George HW Bush), government officials (including retired officials Kissinger), the European Central Bank, the Japanese Ministry of Finance as well as Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, Switzerland Banks and other great institutions, in unison, unanimously, called for reform of RMB exchange rate regime. Economists, multidimensional media, international organizations, parliamentarians, together, inside and outside attack from the General Assembly will be small, discussion interview, vocal opposition, wall push everyone down ......
It's real pressure, through the relentless economic laws reflect. With GDP growth, exports, trade surplus soared, the mainland's foreign exchange reserves, jumped two hundred billion US dollars in 2004; 35 in 2005 than in Japan, the world's first; break one trillion US dollars in 2006, an unprecedented financial mankind. Endure 36 yuan does not appreciate, appreciation pressures continue to increase, foreign exchange reserves continued to increase. Little appreciation of the renminbi, objective verification inevitable trend appreciation, followed attract more hot money to encourage the import and export business, "the settlement, but the night" to stimulate people to exchange US dollars for yuan, to further strengthen the appreciation pressure. 37 McKinnon think clearly: "To enable the private dollar assets into the pressure of RMB assets already exist, the future will aggravate." 382,001 years, the mainland residents to save 7.4 trillion yuan, resident foreign currency deposits $ 87.6 billion. 2005, 14.1 trillion yuan of household savings, resident foreign currency deposits $ 72.6 billion. 39 years time, doubling RMB savings, foreign exchange deposit minus $ 15 billion (proving once again that the financial crisis is not Soros made). However, as the bull market in stocks, as the continued appreciation of the renminbi, or fast or slow, sooner or later than who do not know the "threshold", "chase" chasing the so-called "exchange rate overshooting" the market is expected to turn to fear devaluation speculation withdrawal of hot money - selling renminbi "sell" the expected depreciation in the opposite direction is bound to self-realization. 40 ridiculous idea on the establishment of a floating target area is painful lessons, including the European exchange rate mechanism, including completely destroyed. 41 Logically, the RMB exchange rate is only liberalized market regulation, in order to appropriately. In 2007, the accession to the WTO to open its financial solemn commitment into effect, more and more opportunities for arbitrage hedge, speculative hot money is difficult to expect automatic leave. 42 yuan while deliberately stressed with a basket of currencies, while deliberately explain how much the RMB against the US dollar, does not solve the problem. 43 while expanding open admission of foreign hot money bet, pulled the stock market, while constantly alert to warn people of the retail market from overheating, do not solve the problem.
Moreover, short-term appreciation of the RMB Paulson strong, medium freely convertible, 44 not a bubble intimidation, will be able to realize the full power of logic. Global economic integration, on the one hand, multinational labor-intensive processing industries, consumer goods production to China. Most of China's exports, is transferred out of the developed countries, exports in China by foreign or joint venture back to the product. On the other hand, in addition to large aircraft, high-tech products will be strictly limited to Chinese exports. Global allocation of production factors market regulation, trade products does not act according to market principles, China's trade surplus meant to be. 45 Such asymmetry does not change the pattern of production - trade, investment, attracting two out of raw materials and markets, in large quantities; just make big capital into big let out, equal to welcome long the "chase", and not short-selling "sell." This time bet RMB appreciation, not only to lose to win, became the Chinese system of government guaranteed risk-free investment. So, as long as the appreciation of the RMB began, inevitably encourage more foreign investment, domestic buy renminbi assets, including "hidden trade in non-trade inflows", 46 A shares, H shares and real estate fever, 47 Hong Kong residents with HK exchange in Hong Kong Renminbi, the continued appreciation of 48 ongoing self-realization. Until the final liberalization of capital projects, with a "sell" mechanism, "chase" the momentum in the opposite direction only devaluation risk constraints. 49 raw materials market two out, by large, controlled by others, it is because; inside and outside the capital in great quantities, rampage, is fruit. In this fruitful harvest season, but the problem is a deep harmony in the mystery of the former president of Goldman Sachs, made the "Interim" How fast will come? - 2008 Olympic Games.
In 2005, mainland China two trillion US dollars GDP, stock market, "circulation" was 400 billion dollars. 50 a state-owned shares, make it straight rolling his eyes. Do not worry, stone hills, can learn. As long as the flagship Soros pricked up the beach, and then there Tiger Fund, funds, and so landed Puma, many commercial banks will inevitably raise loans before Britain after run, inevitably many retail funds carried forward "Midnight" in a full effort, unscrupulous inquire about the news, rushed laid down his life to follow up. The proportion of US GDP that year ten trillion US dollars to support 20 trillion stock market reference, 35 trillion yuan deposits in mainland China, an unprecedented 51 hot enough to burn. In 2006, the motherland A shares soaring rate of 184% proof, 52 Greater China can be like a small Japanese year, through a period of buying shares on the money, buy property on the appreciation of madness. With the "chase" must "sell." To the widespread concern when the bull market is not endless dash, wild beasts would fund short-selling volume of money. Interestingly, and Osama bin Laden by US planes hit the building, like the United States, George Soros playing pounds sterling fierce throw borrowed from the Bank of England, playing baht is borrowed from the Bank of Thailand Baht fierce throw. The difference is that Osama bin Laden hit the building admit, Soros gentlemanly lot, every time to repay debts, or use the stock market to win more than they did at the release of the Thai baht, or buy from the market greatly depreciated pounds.
Mexican example shows that the most frightening words to describe, when developing the animal nature of global capital open-minded when they reached a deal with the devil. When liquidity is filled with the global financial system, look around for the highest return, these countries will be able to find the country was filled with prosperity and rapid initiation of foreign "hot money" - or foreign funds decided to leave (for whatever reason) the time when, the sudden appearance of a credit shortage. 53
5.2 to guard against financial risks?From 1993 to cool the real estate a hot start, the mainland authorities continued to crack down on illegal fund-raising, 54 categorically stop international futures, compression rectify the domestic futures, investment trusts compression consolidation, merger urban credit cooperatives, rural cooperative foundations ban, inventory of state-owned banks' off-balance sheet account ", banking, securities, trust, insurance decoupling, legislation to regulate sub-sector, non-bank financial market stocks, ....... Close Rural Credit, sea distribution, wide SDIC bankruptcy, reorganization, Guangdong, shot Shen Tai Fook, Deng Bin, justice Zhu Xiaohua, Wang Xuebing, Liu Jinbao, 55 Chinese government and a wave after wave of financial tide, expand arduous struggle courageously, inhibit a variety of frenzied financial speculation, stop all kinds of financial market collusion.
Sincere with international standards, where they come from as promised stubborn perseverance against the tide? Newcomers to the money economy, the theory can not see the future. Struggle of determination and courage, foresight should not what is more likely is a modern manifestation of ancient Chinese tradition gene Restraining Commerce - the development of heavy industry, material, suppression of speculative gambling providers. 56 In any case, the positive trend continued anti objective effect. Beginning of the new century, the world economy with one of depression; alone in the burning heat continent, "world factory" thriving.
The Asian financial crisis swept Asia, the mainland authorities' financial risks. " Strictly speaking, the financial risk is, how to prevent? Investment return money economy, input ~ output and cost does not matter, and risk match. The higher the risk, the higher the odds. Win more because of the greater risk. So, economists advocate financial deepening, there are so many advantages to say, on principle, is to emphasize how many risks. It is right and proper betting bet. Only gambling to prevent gambling losses. The Asian financial crisis, Malaysia recover exchange controls, closed the casino does not play, is a deterrent. 57 Guangdong resolve financial crisis, "three-step" - wide SDIC bankruptcy, reorganization, Guangdong, close eight hundred non-bank financial institutions, drastic cut out a fire road, stop payments crisis along the Hong Kong and Guangdong to the mainland prairie hinterland, is a precautionary. 58 Hong Kong Government courageous to come forward market. Bearish short-selling is not it, how much you throw, how much I am going. For long on some sort of relief, so that short-selling of down the drain, but also be a deterrent. 59 The problem is that "the world has become a big casino", "wealth effect" leading cyclical, speculative hot money flatter stock market boom, only to stimulate the supply demand, the economy can develop. At this time, who carry out these controls on capital that taxation, foreign investment does not come within the trader away from home. For example, the Hong Kong authorities Makers end to destabilize gamblers bruising, getaway to escape, losing the return, the financial center of the successful prevention of financial risks, deserted casino gambling business was light years have asthma not on the air. 60 Thanks to help the future of the motherland, but also Cepa is "free exercise", Hong Kong stock market to pick up, making the stock calmly sell, otherwise, the Government would not become final stuck suckers?
Proven experience of all countries, as long as financial liberalization, not to mention "the prevention of financial risks." Heard of an American economist, Bank of America in recognition of the sound system, effective supervision. Instead, the famous American economist Milton Friedman from the beginning, the US government has never scoff financial regulation, in order to expose, criticize, ridicule, sarcasm regulatory authorities inability to conflict. 1980s, the United States ahead of financial liberalization, "junk bonds" dusty, annual interest rate of 1.5 to 2 times the conventional bonds, blink of an eye, issued more than two hundred billion US dollars. 1990 wiped out, 110 banks failed. 61 No curtain call a farce, a larger residential savings and loan beautifully. Deposit called shares, said the dividend return. Abuses of the last 62, 1100 banks and savings and loan institutions go bankrupt, leaving taxpayers a half a trillion dollars and 35 years to pay off the Niezhai. 63 cases of uncontrollable corporate finance, more crowds, dizzying. Salomon Brothers, 64 Long Term Capital Management, Enron - Andersen, 65 Merrill Lynch, Deloitte, KPMG ......, a game a monster, pandemonium inside, revealing layers of shady collusion of money. US Securities and Exchange Commission investigation of false accounts, since 1991 40, 1998 75 since 2000 107 cases, 45% involved in the nation's largest 500 companies. 66 workload and difficulty of the work, a little better than the CCDI leisure. Although suicide is suicide, sentencing sentencing, career and fortune to play than most master, in the end rare. Enormous benefits tend to make people one after another. "Wild fire" in truth, size-fits-all. "King of the securities of garbage." - Mike Milken, the court sentenced to jail a head, a head for the industry and respected economists dare to eat crab pioneers, "Wall Street's hero", 67 "great financial innovators", " One of the great bankers of the century. " 68 Like the real estate bubble burst continent blamed Zhu macro-control, as "it is generally believed that the collapse of the American savings loan association (S & L) can be attributed to the Volcker as Fed chairman during (for anti-inflationary) suddenly raise interest rates." 69 "LTCM lost the entire $ 4.5 billion, almost the entire Wall Street dragged into the abyss." 15 months later, in December 1999, the promoters John Merina Witherspoon also raise $ 150 million, "a re-sail." 70
Once upon a time, long-term capital management partner of 11 people, there is David Mullins, had been in charge of the domestic financial affairs assistant Treasury Secretary, Fed vice chairman, "once was considered to be Alan Greenspan's successor. "There are 71 Harvard professor Robert Merton," a pivotal one in the financial sector, by many scholars as the industry authority genius class scholars; one of Wall Street culture for several generations, including Eric Rosenfeld, including Traders dean class people. "72 Professor 马尔隆 Scholes, because legendary Black - Scholes stock option pricing model. 73 for the two companies to develop science professor operational procedures, in October 1997 both won the Nobel Prize in Economics, August 1998 Chuang disaster. 74 near the mouth before eating mud, two Nobel laureates brilliant, vowed:
This small group ...... trying to bring the best of the best finance theory and finance practice closer together.
Our job is to find the most reasonable worldwide investment opportunities, our model can easily identify those overpriced or low transaction types. Then we will be on some uncertain factors, such as the number of market factors, hedging, to achieve the purpose of risk aversion. 75
Faced with these figures top financial official supervision, civil operations, academic research and the top "financial expertise", economists chatter strengthen supervision, it is incomprehensible. 76 say how corrupt the mainland Oriental despotism, on the case, so far, it really could not give an example of democracy than the United States plus miles Independent major cases.
The use of complex pricing models to choose design derivatives trading, is actually a highly leveraged bet on price fluctuations. ...... More price changes tend to be concentrated in the vicinity of the extreme lognormal predicted. The reason is that the cumulative effect of a beauty contest can lead to extreme fluctuations in the price of a lot of concentration. In this case, the driver of today's trading programs tend not to correct mathematical model for asset pricing. ...... When we share and pass on a certain view of the market, the possibility of a liquidity crisis cumulative rise ?? - ?? Everyone wants to sell. In this case, the management of financial risks is an illusion only. 77 ??
Of course, strengthen supervision, is in practice can only comforting thing. But it must be realistic, casino perfect order, to help gambling business. If advertised policing can curb speculation, self-deception is just boiling soup Yang, Baoxinjiuhuo, deceptive insincere, ulterior motives. What's more, in large part (if not all), "financial innovation" has always been "to bypass the regulatory" synonymous. "Road Bearing in mind", is a true portrayal. Encourage financial innovation, promote strengthening supervision, are simultaneously selling contemporary replica of the spear and shield. 78
The emergence of many innovations that we have observed, precisely in order to circumvent regulatory restrictions obstacles. Regulators always be left behind, but it is also the case. 79
Since many derivatives purpose is to circumvent the birth control information about the rules to improve the speed of nature can not be synchronized with the update rate derivatives. ...... LTCM once capsized Enron degeneration and other incidents show that derivative instruments on the asset quality of the impact of external non-expert investors not only difficult to understand, and even expert insiders are not fully understood. 80
So it is not the ordinary people, is Greenspan, philosophical question and answer dialogue, improve supervision, strengthen prevention, from the logical starting point contradictory, untenable. Because the meaning of the final analysis, the so-called "moral hazard" is more perfect regulation, the more comprehensive risk prevention, encourage more people to be more adventurous.
Whether regulatory authorities have the expertise and resources to provide meaningful oversight, and performance in the global market activity dispersed giant financial institutions are engaged in risky activities, an accurate assessment. If the answer is (in many cases are like this), we should let market participants know that if we are able to effectively monitor these activities? This will enable market participants to reduce their motivation to comply with market discipline it? All of the major financial institutions, including investment in the most decentralized organization, if you accept the coordinated management of the regulatory agencies in a way a paper statement will be able to expand and support the national safety net effective it? It brings a source of systemic risk - moral risk? 81
An important factor in prompting past crises, is moral hazard. In other words, in determining the level of risk of the parties concerned, to benefit from taking risks but do not bear the full cost of risk when stimulus measures appear to be distorted. Take the interest rate risk and currency risk, excessive leverage, between the fragile financial system and bank financing, all because of a safety net and to be encouraged. People expect the national monetary authorities or international financial institutions will come to rescue the ailing financial system and unsound investments. This expectation is clearly a very large extent, promote excessive risk-taking. 82
America's special, but monetary forms of financial crisis has not yet occurred. Not because Soros patriotism, could not bear to start, because of the huge size of the market dollars. Can also be seen from the Japanese experience, simple heavy manufacturing production system has become the backbone to survive long-term depression. After the Asian financial crisis, South Korea brutally poisoned stubborn recovery of Hong Kong won the Soros malaise. Material production to the currency exchange industry depth media has played a fundamental role of the real deal. Today, China's 1.3 billion population, GDP fourth in the world for hard currency, the renminbi in the surrounding local-like, 83 trillion-dollar foreign exchange reserves. Even Soros trouble now to warrant the same as the baht vulnerable. If we can unite as one, united in the financial gaming, and learn Japanese defeated, not entirely inconceivable. Therefore, prevention of financial risks monetary form, in the final analysis the two roads. Right now is the "little money" way, rather than being sacked a further exchange controls, as Mahathir school now, read "by the very word," preferring to withstand economic sanctions, 84 non-convertible yuan anyway , international gambling customary to say "no." 85 Even if the result of sanctions or the stock market, property market Guikulanghao, after rotten meat in the pot to warrant the "open" the Chinese government was losing control. Where there is life, in the future, like the euro to go "big money" Road, make every effort to support the growth of the economies of scale of the yuan. It was not a continuous basis, motherland sustained rapid development continues, then how many years surpassed the US to become the world's largest economic entity? 86 If really coming to that time, a little wild beasts fund, we do not turn on the arch.
World Bank agricultural experts had thought that China will not raise cattle, after the reform and opening up, the great development of the continent beef. Distributed to farmers rearing calves, two or three years to grow up skeleton, to develop a "Steers" buy back unity in captivity, all kinds of fine concentrate feed, Hu eat Hesse, "fatten" three to four months, Biaofei After the body fat, get fat turn swept slaughterhouse meat. For cattle, the slaughter of time delay as much as possible, the passive defense instinct. Could really ruin every life is to fully utilize the limited time delay, take fattening fodder gorge, in the shortest possible time by leaps and bounds, and expansion into Monkey also do nothing to cattle devil.
5.3 Western DevelopmentHow can we continue to grow? - Self-reliance and hard work.
Mainland economic growth, millions of migrant workers employed in the proportion of serious imbalance, exports depend directly on the southeast coast of light processing industry, dependent on foreign investment. In 1991, Deng Ying Amoy strongly challenged, this road can not be the revitalization of the nation shortcuts. 87 Yes, the development of Japan's postwar miracle, through export-oriented model to come out. Then, "Four Little Dragons" followed. Then, "five tigers" comes along. 88 Then, among the eastern coast of mainland meantime. 89 Asian financial crisis in the past, the dragon who along inertia, to this road more fierce punch. In 2000, GDP growth across Asia, and two fifths by the export of US IT equipment. 90 a narrow road friction hub shoulder hit, bees collect ants gather over one billion people, and then what "wild-type structure" line up, how can we avoid traffic jams?
2005, mainland GDP 22257 billion, import and export of $ 1.4221 trillion, the equivalent of 64% GDP. 91 high proportion of export-oriented Japan (20.66%) and globalization United States (21.28%) more than three times. 922 001 ~ 2004, exports accounted for 50.1% of total foreign mainland exports, 52.2%, 55.5% and 57.8%. 93 multinational companies from consumer goods to machinery, electronics, metallurgy, energy, chemicals, enjoy the motherland industry consolidation. Raw materials, markets, "two out" in great quantities, in many fields, transformed into capital scheduling, research and development and industrial playmaker outside (foreign) outward-dependent economy. In 2006, more than three hundred million tons of imported iron ore, "accounted for 46.6% of total global iron ore seaborne trade." 942 005 years, the export of 6.9 billion pairs of shoes, 540 million sets of fans, 150 million DVD. Communist country 951.3 billion population, unsustainable external dependence to such an extent that unsustainable. Since 2003, oil and raw material prices soaring, not only Europe, but also in developing countries have sanctions against Chinese exports. 96 "two out", two bullied.
China's economic development model, we must make a fresh start up resource development to the west. Resource development of heavy industry and urbanization of great development, sustained enough to start domestic demand and promote economic growth and reduce import and export dependence; enough to put part of the workers to organize themselves wandering, to the vast western married and live in peace, ease the rich-poor divide. Large span of water resources, comprehensive land improvement, large-scale resource development, a comprehensive adjustment of the population and distribution of productive forces, for the sustainable development of China's economy, open up vast new deep space, called the "recycling one China" Chiaki cause. 97 "can not win in himself, can win the enemy." Ages easy.
"Two out" unsustainable core issue is not self-development - controlled by others. Start the core issue of domestic demand, is polarization - the workers and peasants do not have enough income to buy a serious surplus of material goods. One is the laid-off workers buyouts, not to increase the income of farmers, migrant workers are owed wages sweat, coal mine explosion innocent people, most "vulnerable" by the "new three big mountains" (education, housing, health care), but the weight of asthma gas; there are a few corrupt profiteers, the dream life of corruption. At this moment, the trend of the times, to succumb to international pressure, speed up financial liberalization, integration of gambling and speculation, can only accelerate the polarization, intensified insufficient domestic demand, overproduction, the loss of autonomy of macro-control, leading to catastrophe financial turmoil. History has and will continue to prove, whether developed powers just how people envy, equal to imperialist capitalism, it can not save China. 98 must be determined to suppress the "financial deepening", slow polarization, western long period, large-scale resource development to maintain a stable price environment, the reform as "vulnerable" workers and peasants, and then reform into labor productivity and income consumption main! Not only are "no choice choice" in the sense of sustainable development, while 99 people have let most common prosperity and political significance.
5.4 Great East series?Theoretically, another rapidly growing growth direction is east big series.
After World War II, Soviet hegemony has squeezed from Germany and France began Coal and Steel Community, the European series in arduous big stick. Turn of the century, from the ruins of the European exchange rate mechanism links, wings fluttering out of the euro, the dollar rival. Euro 12 member states, population 304 million, the annual 2000 GDP slightly inferior US, more than Japan, the use of the single currency's second largest economy. Plus application to join the European Union and Eastern Europe, Central European countries, the EU's total population is expected to approach five hundred million, GDP is expected to cross the United States. 100 There are 14 African countries using the currency of the CFA franc pegged to the euro, the Balkans almost to Mark for currency, and another 30 to 40 countries to develop national euro reference exchange rates. "Father of the Euro" Mundell satisfied:
Euro has forced us to change the view of the international monetary system. Each country has to make their own currency fluctuations and inflation era to solve the problem is gone. We are entering a monetary union in the world, it will be dominated by the dollar zone, the euro area and the yen zone. In the near future, the world will be less dependent on the dollar, the powers of the international monetary system will get a different assignment. This change will generate new ideas in terms of meaningful reform of the international financial architecture. Euro is undoubtedly a catalyst for reform. 101
Euro countries inequality, 102 language barrier, 103 culturally diverse. Car different tracks, different text books, weights and measures are not unified, strong currency forcibly twisted together the most critical issue, "no government money," a world no 104 Phoenix. On the one hand it is the future of the euro Nie Bahan, he explains the necessity and urgency of the monetary union. "In particular, the single European currency planned in Germany caused a lot of great concern:" Hard Mark "will be sacrificed because of the soft euro on the altar of European unity." 105 However, the rise of the yen after World War II, Mark, 1990 Japan stock market crash, from 1992 to 1993 the European exchange rate mechanism since scattered, outlasted both in the "new economy" of the altar. Chong throes of deep lessons proved dollar hegemony dominated financial reform and opening up, is the "Americanization of global financial markets." 106 Clinton Secretary of State Albright was clearly explain: "The best way out is not the hatred of globalization, but to strive to create globalization, to make it to the US service." 107 being in this "American Service" the "Americanization of global financial markets," alone only passive beating the negotiations, but to protect themselves, but could not, no choice but to hand even a stroke.
Logically, "Greater China" should be more promising than the EU. Do not say the equivalent of twice the total population of the world seven strong, do not say five thousand years of culture in Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia's deep roots thick base, 108 said that in 2004 China's $ 1.9 trillion GDP, Yan seems, the fourth-largest economy entity. If we add the total amount of Hong Kong's sovereignty within the existing range, Macao, Taiwan, GDP 2.5 trillion. 109 global trade, exports to the mainland accounted for 5.8%, imports accounted for 5.5%, respectively, the world's fourth and third; if coupled with Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore's imports and exports (excluding re-section), import and export volume are the world's second . 110 in February 2006, $ 853.7 billion foreign exchange reserves continent; if coupled with Hong Kong (125.7 billion), Taiwan (257 billion), Singapore (120.2 billion), $ 1.36 trillion foreign exchange reserves, the world's foreign exchange reserves equivalent to 2005 (4.17 one trillion US dollars) in the third. 111
After the Asian financial crisis, the region has highlighted the role of the mainland economy. From 1991 to 2005, the mainland's trade with ASEAN, soared to $ 8.9 billion from 130 billion, 15-year increase of 15 times. 1121999 ~ 2004, intra-Asia trade 15% average annual growth (trade between Asian American and Asia-Europe annual growth of 6%). 2004, Asia accounted for 55% of intra-regional trade in Asia's total trade, far higher than the 18% of North American trade and 15 percent of European trade. 113 mainland imports from these countries, the proportion of total imports periphery, from 1980 to 2001, from 6.2% rise to 40.9% excited. "Overall, the current small East Asian economies appeared to China's trade surplus, China has increasingly become a growth engine for small East Asian economies. China's rapid integration into the East Asian production system, so that the small East Asian economies reduces the need for the United States, Japan and Europe direct export dependence on the developed industrialized economies in East Asia, direct exports to the United States, Europe, and China increasingly play a leading role. "114 If we consider to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Southeast Asia, hundreds of billions of dollars in investment and trade, taking into account Singapore Chinese economy, taking into account the 25 million overseas Chinese in Southeast Asia and $ 450 billion in economic strength, 115 every attempt to contain China, has long been a global integration conscious action. In other words, with the economic cooperation between the great benefits on the basis of the monetary union, in Japan, South Korea, China and Southeast Asian countries, between England and France, Germany and France hit the historical grievances and compared the two world wars from the Hundred Years War, and more is not necessarily irreconcilable. 116 Therefore, the car with the track, the book with the text of the descendants of the development and growth of economic strength, separatist forces and separatist tendencies powers to intervene more in-depth development and growth. Since the new century, the "Greater China" region economy heats up, politics is getting cold; the combination of economic, political, the more points. Globalization is not to say it? Violation economy to political and economic divide, become an established pattern of East Asian plate.
For good reason, some heavily dependent on international trade and investment, a small country always attaches great importance to the stability of the currency. When most of the domestic price level and the economy are seriously suffering from external influences, significant exchange rate fluctuations more worrisome. 117
The Asian financial crisis of the countries exchange rate could not resist and had to indulge float. In addition to re-exchange controls in Malaysia, although many other countries and regions all sorts of technical restrictions imposed on short-term capital flows, there is no way to improve both the institutional regulation, there is no way to prevent risks. "In those trade-GDP ratio, the higher the economy, exchange rate fluctuations on the import and export of damage will be the greater." 118 "small country through their own actions is unable to cope with an unstable currency among the more important of the resulting" . 119 after the financial turmoil, scattered small country's economic recovery, there is no improvement in the international financial order, supervision and management system without any progress, "many East Asian countries do not want to float freely. They eager to regain some degree of exchange rate stability." There is no national policy selection, return to the traditional peg to the dollar. 120. "For most of the Asian economies, and the exchange rate peg with a system would be vulnerable to a crisis that's easy." 121 "East Asian monetary system remains unstable and prone to problems." 122 In fact, Asia continues to be in recovery, "the second of the Asian financial crisis," a direct threat. 123 "As long as the structural problems of international capital supply exist, such as active capital flows as well as the three major economies (US, Europe and Japan) exchange rate fluctuations, the East Asian countries remain the same as before the face of future crises that may occur fragile." 124 Once the "face significant difference between the interest rate and exchange rate uncertainty," hot money "flows will happen again, as from 1997 to 1998 when, as a recurrence of excessive borrowing and over in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand capital flight and currency collapse brings a cycle. "125
Exchange rate instability is a major threat to the world's prosperity. Unstable exchange rates lead to instability in financial markets, as well as the actual debt, tax burden, interest rates and wage rates evolution. Emerging market countries in Asia before stabilizing their currencies, they will not be able to completely restore confidence. 126
???? Asian countries heavily dependent on foreign investment and exports, "most of the economies of the US dollar exchange rate volatility increased significantly after the crisis." 127 ways to stabilize the currency, exchange rate stability has become the overriding issue. "In today's world, with a high degree of capital mobility, a long-lasting way to eliminate exchange rate instability is to reduce currency. ...... Monetary integration by eliminating internal national currencies to achieve monetary stability in Europe." 128 suffered the misery of the financial crisis, Monetary Union became the trend of the times. 129 Unfortunately, the trend in Europe is not equal to the trend in Asia. "After World War II, the United States had encouraged the European regional integration, including the establishment of the European Payments Union European Payments Union eventually become the first step towards the European Monetary Union. On the contrary, in the 1990s, the United States but then the establishment of a regional Asian Monetary Fund had strong suspicion. "130
The Asian financial crisis, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia proposed the establishment of an emergency 600 to $ 100 billion of "Asian Monetary Fund", was strongly opposed by the United States. The reason is that "the establishment of any fund, will affect the leading role of IMF in the world economy can play in a state of emergency." 131 Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, the overall situation: "The United States was unable to convince the" Asian Monetary Fund "to make countries in the region can be paid at the time of financial crisis needs economic aid; we think appropriate institutions to resolve these problems, cross-regional and international organizations, rather than to the newly established regional organizations, as this problem itself far-reaching effects beyond the boundaries of the Asia-Pacific region. "Then, in the G7 Finance Ministers meeting in Japan to refer to" Asian Monetary Fund. " The most intense opposition to the United States and Germany, the euro is going all out. German Finance Minister emphatic: "If the Asian region to establish such a fund, it will undoubtedly undermine the existing international financial order." 132
What is "the existing international financial order"? Going into the financial crisis, is "the existing international financial order"; dollar hegemony, is "the existing international financial order"; than the "Asian Monetary Fund" to go further in the euro, is "the existing international financial order. " - First, reduce the impact of the US dollar against the euro in Europe. Once the euro market, exports to the EU countries, measured by currency conversion percentage of GDP, down from 35% to 13.6% of a sudden. 1332005, the European bond market $ 4.7 trillion, more than the United States ($ 4.2 trillion). 134
In the long run, a strong euro may give the Europeans brought a long-awaited political strength ?? - ?? achieve coordination if their inherent interest in the use of this power, would have been so ?? - ?? Whether on the reform of IMF aid on countries in the Middle East or Central European country's oil production in Russia and negotiations. 135
To Zhefan magnificent prospect, the EU countries have united struggle of the monetary union, down 2.25% in the space of a third country's currency (US dollar) to implement joint floating. 136 of the Soviet Union, the end of the Cold War, peace and harmony. "July 1990, eight EU member states completely abolished capital controls." 137 for large-scale speculative attacks, the last one to open the gate. 138 East and West Germany unified, two marks one to one exchange, provide an opportunity for market regulation. Gossip surging, countries hit by the exchange rate and kicked. Turbulence to September 1992, FIM devaluation, embarrassed out, to float freely. Then, on September 16, the Bank of England invested $ 26.9 billion bailout, interest rates soared to 15 percent. One weeks time, the Italian foreign exchange reserves depleted forty billion marks (24 billion marks another German aid). EC dozen finance ministers met all night, powerless, British pound, the lira devaluation, fled to escape the exchange rate mechanism, the British finance minister resign. 139 Next, market regulation "should be left Yong chase tottering foe." "In order to support the franc exchange rate, the Bank of France to spend the day in the 51 billion francs were strong intervention." By the end of the contest, market regulation Yuezhanyueyong SEK devaluation, letting float. January 1993, 20% devaluation of the Irish pound was forced. In February, the Danish krone was brutally gang fights. May, although there are countries even hand to help, devaluation of Spain and Portugal pizza Aeschylus, quit the exchange rate mechanism. July, market regulation fear of fatigue, continuous fighting, offensive francs. 22 to 29, seven days time, the Bank of France's foreign exchange reserves from 103 billion francs a negative 2.8 billion expenditure. 140 "just rely very decidedly French intervention only survived this catastrophe." 141 "from 1992 to 1993 during the foreign exchange crisis in Europe, the Bank of France and the German Federal Bank to jointly invest in the three hundred billion US dollars to protect the European Monetary System." 142 struggled to the end of July, governments collectively to surrender, the exchange rate float space to expand to 15% "meaningless" is. 143 surviving German economy minister, lamented the European single currency was painted on the "pause." 144 wanted, new and old turn of the century, and even the exchange rate mechanism can not hold contact, fled, shaken the euro, or become "the existing international financial order." 145
Toward integration in Europe, including the use of a common currency is the main driving force is actually political, rather than economic in nature. 146
A single European currency most important lesson is that monetary union establishment in essence is a political process. 147
The new century, the United States accounted for 15% of world trade in total trade, according to the US dollar-denominated trade accounted for 45% of total world trade."International rate" for three dollars, called "dollar hegemony" does not say. Europe accounted for 17% of world trade in total trade, according to the Euro-denominated trade accounted for 28% of total world trade. "International rate" for the euro 1.7.148 Asia accounted for 35% of global GDP. In 2002, 50% of trade in East Asia were ten economies in the region, the United States imports and exports only accounted for 23.1% and 14.4% of total imports and exports, respectively. Most but with 149 US dollars. Up to 150 exported to Japan, the mid-1990s, 40% of exports and 20 percent of imports in yen settlement. 151 45% of Japan's exports go to Asia, half of the settlement by the yen, 48% in dollar deal. Japan's imports from Asia, 25 percent in yen settlement, 75% in US dollars to pay. 152 No wonder Ishihara angry: even fascist kills Hitler is the culprit, but why turn on hitchhiking to suffer atomic bomb in Japan, and more than one? 153
After the Asian financial crisis, East Asian countries foreign exchange reserves soared. 1999, the East Asian economies, foreign exchange reserves of nearly ten nine hundred billion US dollars, accounting for about half of global foreign exchange reserves; $ 1.76 trillion in 2003, accounting for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves. "This period of reserve accumulation in East Asia accounted for 70% of global foreign exchange reserves increment." 154 "A major drawback of the accumulation of international reserves in its high financial cost, this is because high-income countries will become a national asset transformation low-yielding foreign assets. "Clearly, the perspective" from a simple cost-benefit calculation, the East Asian economies need to establish some kind of repository mechanism. " Once the reserve capacity of 155 using a relatively centralized, decentralized country not only locally against financial shocks greatly increased, and the "international financial order," speaking voice is greatly increased. 156 To this end, 10 + 1, + 3 meeting trip and a trip to the exchange rate regime and monetary cooperation has become the central theme of the dragon warmly interflow. 1,572,005, the East Asian countries and bilateral currency swap agreements to repurchase $ 31.5 billion barely conspire, equivalent to more than two trillion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves countries 1.5%. The plain truth is that "does not exist in Asia for a boycott of speculation provide unlimited financial support and collective commitment." 158 Who can say clearly, from the trivial dispersion bilateral currency repurchase agreements, to scale sufficient to deter speculation the impact of monetary union, as well as how long way to go? - Lame turtle miles, "the international financial system seems more than a decade ago to find a long-term solution from farther." 159
East Asian countries like the European Union still has not reached that degree of economic integration. It also does not get close to having the necessary political cohesion among member states to impose the necessary financial constraints, as in the Maastricht treaty mode, similar to the introduction of the euro as an independent regional currency. 160
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) continued to fight for the establishment of a free trade area, customs union, let alone; the political union issue is not on the agenda. Asian governments still do not do the slightest compromise on the sovereignty issue, and there is no political will to achieve integration. In Asia, the lack of a similar Paris - Bonn axis of Beijing-Tokyo axis to facilitate this process. Asia is also a lack of a series of agreements to achieve a reliable currency commitments. Xie and Yam (1999) suggested that if Japan and the United States to give up the security agreement, and the establishment of an Asian security system, it is possible to change the above situation. But obviously, this is not possible in the near future. 161
5.5 NishuixingzhouIn the February 4, 1965, de Gaulle use the opportunity to hold a press conference reporters began openly attack. His basic point is that "the dollar system" to the United States to provide the "exorbitant privilege." The United States the freedom to raise their own funds in the world, because unlike other countries, it does not lead to the loss of international reserves balance of payments deficit, and unrestricted dollars to settle. Solution would be to return to the gold standard, his language fascinating. Charles de Gaulle said, was "the basis of a country does not give any special treatment on the undisputed" establishment of an international monetary system of the time. 162
Sustained high economic growth of 1.3 billion people, and say, "peaceful development", the objective is to challenge the existing world economic (market) and resources (energy, raw materials) configuration pattern. China to curb international order who deliberately do not develop the western, eastern division soon. Western does not develop, heavy chemical industry unable to freshmen, the lack of vast camp. Eastern resources are depleted, economic growth unsustainable. Fast eastern division, tens of millions of overseas Chinese in Southeast Asia, then as long or short at the gates of brutally violent looting. Rich deposits of oil and gas resources of the South China Sea, East China Sea, the sanctity of territorial waters, airspace, all on a map drawn dashed. Taiwan separatist forces relying on foreign forces. Trying to resist the continent economically irresistible charm, to Southeast Asia, "south" billions of dollars of investment; 163 political refuge in the United States, Japan and the military, obsessed with the island as a hostile country's independence out. Even Hong Kong's return to China a decade, equal to HK dollars. 164 Hong Kong economy stretched, mainland frequency Shi hand, QDII "going out" investment, 165 QFII misappropriating back to the mainland, 166 official folk shouted in unison, calling leisurely offshore RMB business, from RMB deposits (on the grounds that RMB back) start a snowball, 167 yuan Shen cited interest rate swaps, futures 168 yuan, 169 yuan bonds, the yuan, "free exercise", 170 H A shares hedging mechanism, 171 "Shenzhen-Hong Kong liberalization of capital flows," a 172 ...... "Imagine" inspired by another an "Imagine", a "plan" another incentive "plan"! 173
In the end what is "offshore renminbi trading center"? Plainly, that is Fawaishien, avoid, circumvent legal black market control, cardiopulmonary bypass - the continent illegal, Hong Kong legal. Hong Kong's currency freely convertible, financial predators Huju dragon. RMB and HKD more convertible, it can not but worry for China's impending financial crisis, squeezing open a back door. Hong Kong's market regulator out of 174 yuan price, not only the yuan should be evidence enough to continue to appreciate (or depreciate), and the marginal significance, leading directly to "Litongwaiguo" capital scheduling. 175 in Hong Kong, mainland China, "two systems", trade, processing, "after the former factory shop", real estate, stock market, finance, services intricate financial center "fusion" hinterland. Based on such close contacts, intuitively difficult to imagine that the financial turmoil dark clouds, Mahathir categorically exchange controls, severely criticized the Western countries, Singapore see Choi spur of the moment, the opportunity in a big way, "ringgit" offshore trading center? 176
Establish renminbi futures may endanger the country's economic security, and at the time of the accident completely destroyed the image of Hong Kong and the country's status, as well as causing serious damage to our economy; ...... when our success with the establishment of a sufficient volume of renminbi futures market, the market generally I believe the yuan sharply lower case, the RMB exchange or futures speculation far, in real-time to the current exchange rate of RMB will quickly pull up to the market that no longer low level, so the sharp appreciation of China and Hong Kong economy will be in real time and serious damage.
Once the Chinese economy and therefore serious damage or even financial crisis, Hong Kong's economy will not suffer serious damage to it? Hong Kong people in the face of the country can afford to head to lift it? ...... So, from both short-term and long-term damage to the perspective of risk, whether it should be established on the issue renminbi futures, HKEx executives should not only focus on the interests of the HKEx, nor even the right to choose Hong Kong people may not Like the way forward. 177
Greenspan seriously said: "In response to limitations of monetary policy, financial operations to offshore financial centers such an approach is a serious problem.." 178 Why serious? 1970s, the dollar and gold had decoupled from the London offshore operations controlled by the Fed "Eurodollar" fuel. 17,980 years, the yen had to give up foreign exchange controls, Singapore, Hong Kong and offshore operations are not controlled by the Bank of Japan "Asian yen" worse.
I remember in 1971, right? At that time, three hundred billion US dollars of savings in the United States away from the coast into the international banking system, resulting in an autonomous ...... money supply, and the creation of money, more than half are outside the control of the Federal Reserve Board. ...... Until 1987, the euro traded banks can lend 100% of the deposit, and almost the same in every country. Does not require cash reserves ...... nearly 20 years, this three hundred billion US dollars have been flying between the bank and the bank was loaned out again and again. When Ford's European corporate bonds, these borderless borrow dollars. Ford, IBM, General Motors, Mercedes Benz, Philips, Unilever (Unilever), Exxon, British Dutch Shell, as well as other international companies when in need of cash, almost all do. Governments also have to borrow money from these funds. The Netherlands and France have issued debt denominated in euros. Spain, Portugal, and even the former Soviet Union are the same. World Bank to borrow money in the euro market, Argentina, Mexico and Brazil to the World Bank in developing countries, such as the same. ...... We believe that the original three hundred billion US dollars is now worth $ 1.5 trillion, or even two trillion dollars. 180
Deeper strategic question is, "without a doubt, the yen and the yuan will compete for dominance in leading Asian monetary affairs." 1812002, the Ishihara essays <Japan beat China to rebuild roads>, advocated the establishment of "Greater East Asia co yen circle. " 182 Japanese relying on a strong export trade, foreign investment and government aid, painstaking efforts in Southeast Asia regional international yen, repeatedly advocated the yen led Asian Monetary Union. 183 East Asian governments, really experienced the severe financial turmoil. Implementation of the "therapeutic" exchange controls Mahathir repeatedly cries establish an Asian monetary system. 184 In other words, the Great East series, can not repeat the old Europe from the start of trade. If there is no monetary mechanism umbrella and made free trade is booming again, in the end, or do awake for others. Manufacturing and processing, import export, prostitution Sheng prosperity, but for the wild beasts in the looted funds to accumulate wealth. "Asia's second financial crisis" on call, frightened extremely suspicious. The event is not on Mr. Right, had a sugar daddy. Yen chief is not ideal, is better than "13 does not rely on" live at ease. 185 Logically, Asian monetary union is the only solution . If the Hong Kong dollar (the US dollar) dragged down the yuan from the outside in this historical process, China in the most critical aspect of monetary sovereignty, economic diplomacy complacent, I will not speak of the painful lessons of Argentina near the dollar, the NT will say something on the matter, shouting exclaimed parted ways. About this prospect, Lee Teng-hui to the crux of the problem from a logical understanding, strategic orientation, expressing a clear picture:
Now, the money is no longer an abstract unit of account. Today, the same items as the money itself, became the object of the transaction. If in order to stabilize the exchange rate, the central bank intervention in the market, will only encourage speculative foreign exchange operations, regardless of how many dollars to sell, or a drop in the bucket, I am afraid, unable to stabilize the exchange rate.
Free economy based on the free movement of financial capital, based on points, but short-term and long-term funding, if you move all funds are unregulated and laissez-faire, the short-term funds will frequently rounded out the blaze, the impact of financial stability. Current Asian countries need most is a stable exchange rate, economic growth indispensable for long-term investment.
Asia's top priority is to stabilize the exchange rate. Most Asian countries or developing countries, and therefore require substantial investment, if the exchange rate is unstable, then easily become speculators reap huge profits in the market, were not conducive to long-term investment. Therefore, it is necessary to stabilize the exchange rate factor in attracting long-term investment. ...... Hong Kong dollar is linked, is China's worries.
Japan and Taiwan may wish to work together to contribute to Asian currencies . ...... Coming from Japan and Taiwan may be able to assist ASEAN countries, the possibility of the establishment of the Asian currency unit and common thinking. Although this ideal to spend a lot of time and effort to contribute, but we should first reach a consensus, to find a stable exchange rate of the road. If the exchange rate to stabilize, the Asian countries in order to smooth adjustment of the domestic economy. 186
Big series on the eastern part of the monetary union sense, in line with economic laws, is still utopian fantasy politics. Because "external forces (United States) does not support this action." 10 + 1 + 3 is the core of Sino-Japanese relations. "China and Japan have very different opinions on many economic issues, but only these two countries have the ability to lead the Asian countries to achieve monetary and financial integration." 187 European Monetary Union, said one thousand ten thousand, depending on Germany, French feud two bury the hatchet. If all of a sudden one day, Japan's stricken financial crisis and suffered the ravages of the financial crisis, the threat of China, and finally shake hands, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the dragon you for rejoicing, "Asians of Asia" to be castles in the air? - There are problems.
Japan and the United States per capita income is almost flat, skill levels are very close. Have a high degree of capital mobility between the two countries. But Japan is not strong consumer desire - high savings rate relative to the US led to a huge trade surplus. The two economies are complementary in many ways. They get consistency in terms of inflation. Inflation in the United States and Japan, in fact, by all means have been eliminated. However, in the current account surplus, Japan has a huge overseas assets. Its net assets in overseas approaching one trillion US dollars. US net foreign assets of about $ 1.2 trillion, so the two cancel each other out.
In my opinion these two countries are very complementary. They are suitable for the establishment of a monetary union. This may be hard to believe, but these two economies around the globe are very complementary. America's military position is very powerful, able to provide umbrella. Japan's own strength alone can not solve their own political problems in Asia. If the monetary union between the US and Japan, then the Asian currency problem will be solved. If these two countries using the common currency, then you will see a GDP of $ 14 trillion of currency area, which accounted for about 45% of world GDP. ...... If the formation of such a monetary union between the two countries, then there is no need to continue to follow the footsteps of the euro, because the monetary cooperation in Europe is full of political meaning, which is to achieve a single currency and give the country money. 188
5.6 commanding heights: Money and militaryIn 1999, the mainland Hot-selling book "commanding heights", neoliberal atmosphere 磅礡, a Shun prosper, against the will perish historical picture: Governments one from the automotive, rubber, steel, coal, railways, telecommunications, and so they an industry scared to quit. "Some people might think that the police and the prison is a core function of government. In fact, the police have been privatized leisurely." 189
In 2006, the world's popular "The World is Flat", the panorama every corner of the global village playing field fresh image: Miss English India for multinational multinational clients solve problems! "There are approximately 245,000 employees in India dedicated to answering customer service calls from around the world, or call to sell credit cards, mobile phones, or calls the bill. ...... Americans dial 1 ~ 800 ~ help of numbers, that The person who answered the phone in a few blocks away, outside of a few rather than the ocean. "190 ??
Where the best-selling book, of course, not leaking state secrets - whether to reduce the military government intervention. 191 by the "scarcity" "rational" eat economist certain word about "irrational exuberance" of gambling new economy, money is ever more vital than Vital.
Table 1-7: Huntington cited traditional "commanding heights" - "Western powers"
|An owned and operated by the international financial system||2 controls all the hard currency|
|3 is a major world consumer patrons||4 provides the vast majority of the world's manufactured goods|
|5 dominate the international capital markets||Six pairs of many society plays a considerable role in the moral leadership|
|7 has the ability to carry out large-scale military intervention||8 controls the sea routes|
|9 the most advanced technology research and development||10 controls the cutting-edge technology education|
|11 controls the Aerospace Technology||12 controls the aerospace industry|
|13 controls the international communication system||14 controls the high-tech weapons industry|
The United States is the only country able to regulate international banking operations, whether these banks are England, Germany or Japan. This is mainly because buyers and sellers, as well as merchants and creditors and debtors unable to curb bank there is a preference for the dollar rather than willing to trade in other currencies. Dollars over the yen, German mark, Swiss franc and even more loved by the people, although much more than three currencies in real purchasing power than the dollar stable. Even as compared with the IMF's Special Drawing Rights, or the Community ECU or a mixture of such currency "one basket" currency, the dollar is more popular. None of the same currency as the dollar is so convenient or so universally accepted. As previously noted, the dollar preference, two extreme situations experienced volatility in foreign exchange markets, namely the US dollar is too weak or the dollar objective objective too strong (that is, within the national economy in order to calculate the relative purchasing power) era, preference for the dollar still has not been changed. 192
Why do people in the world love the dollar? Because the US science and technology, economic development, political stability, national security. Support the dollar, not only is the largest GDP in the world, and the world's most powerful military power behind the world's most powerful military industry. In 2001, the Pentagon's next-generation fighter production orders to Lockheed. 20 years, the United States, Britain's military order 3002, another three thousand Allied sales. Thirty million US dollars according to an "bare metal" All told, two hundred billion US dollars in the sale, is not only the history of human arms, and probably the biggest in the history of human economic manufacturing business. In addition to the Boeing 193 took part in the bidding, and who is eligible to fair competition? - Invincible fighters, 194 dollars invincible bodyguard. "With the coming of superpower status is the safe haven in the eyes of investors, as well as international economic and financial affairs of unparalleled influence." 195 This "unparalleled influence", constructed the new economy, "the international circle." :
The transfer of labor-intensive and low-tech consumer products in Asia, cheap labor to produce cheap consumer goods, improve the daily life of the American people; the US military focus of manufacturing high-tech products are not sold in Asia (especially China), and the dollar trade surplus revenue in Asia formation; Asian countries with a high return on investment, Zhengdian sweatshop wages, in exchange for the continuous depreciation of (or because of the currency appreciation) of cheap US government bonds, 196 funded by the US government aid to support the US military budget deficit , to help grow the US military, currency, the ability of the world's political, economic, diplomatic, ideological hegemony; Asian countries more disintegration, more investment, more trade surplus, the more non-silent resentment, and even less to buy new US dollar revenue bonds, are American careful wink.
Leaving a hidden fist, market invisible hand can never play a role - if not manufacture fighter McDonnell Douglas F ~ 15, McDonald's also not booming. Silicon Valley has a bird leaving the security of the world environment hidden fist, called the US Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps. 197
We only use a few notes (dollars) to exchange in Asia rich products and services, we are also smart enough to know that everything is not fair, when we sent these notes, we must provide real value of the product - US Pacific Fleet. 198
Unfortunately, the brutal truth is that human history since the real high-tech, has always been a military industry. Including identification of technological progress today - calculator, Internet, cellular phones, big screen, etc., are developed from the military out. Development of high technology, this should be synonymous with the development of the military. The military is the commanding heights of all industries and science and technology. What is the military? Weapons and equipment manufacturing, must be the most advanced machinery, materials, fuel, electronics, telecommunications, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and many other industrial integration. Because of this simple and obvious truth, a poverty-stricken Chinese industry from scratch, ready to fight the planned economy, the State Council, the Ministry of Machinery Industry of eight, in addition to a machine part and eight machine department (agricultural machinery), big six Ministry of National Defense the final say.
After the reform and opening up, the theme of peaceful development of the times. Media circles through the "financial expertise" kaleidoscope looked out sunshine colorful bubbles, Zhongguancun play a bunch of ".com" in the self-employed, has become fashionable pursuit of "high tech." Because in Zhongguancun, a month creating 60 new millionaires. Economists promises, we must cultivate twenty million millionaires, the foundation of the new economy salt of the earth, in order to modernize the motherland. 199 For a time, the great revitalization of the Chinese nation, have come on this batch hatch "know the House" in the chicken coop. Disappointing is that a rush to blow up gas rich, sharp-tongued thick-skinned belly empty. Either not enough to take advantage of, a Mengzi rushed to the prison, stopped all no stopping; or suffer uncomfortable, spoils, nasty infighting. Some really smart, there are moments of retreat in the near future, the fund can not hold a finger wild beasts. Chinese culture into the perverse paradox stress out, opportunistic gamblers, no matter how clever bet, it is hard luck turned national hero. Hu both ways, in the end when the Church were not left. Soros over the world to win so much money, so much money back home to spread the Foundation Office, Office of the University, Office of Poverty Alleviation, do relief, all about money in a little Hungarian, has no hybrid push history forward bigwigs. 200 Chinese UN demands to get rid of the shadow of the financial crisis, from the "existing international financial order" to come out in the economic development level, in the final analysis, depend on money can not buy the defense industry stronger, able to rely on the support of military machinery manufacturing, electronics, communications, materials, fuels, chemicals and other basic industries overall revitalization. So, the Great East series can go far, go fast, depending on the pace of western development. Li Shimin said: "Cardiff rule like trees, do not shake this root, the lush foliage." 201 deeply rooted, long history, what is called also. Flourishes "know the House" hatch the more social atmosphere more corrupt, more busy for the rich first cover mansion (real estate), real high-tech (military) the development is not up, the Chinese people from the "commanding heights" on undecided stroll down farther distance.
Notes and references:
1 ite Vail, Taylor: "The global financial risk regulator" on page 99.
2 Korean high: "century financial crisis" on page 77.
3 Susan Rand: "Mad Money" 124 ~ 125.
4 "from 1988 to 1989, the Mexican stock price index rose from about 250 in 1994 to 2,500 points, including capital gains income is huge." (Hitt Vail, Taylor: "The global financial risk supervision," page 129) .
46 "Back in 2005, Stephen Green, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank released a report that in 2005 China's trade surplus of about $ 102 billion, the real part of it $ 35 billion, while the remaining $ 67 billion, Mr Green termed to "trade in non-trade inflows hidden", that is, the RMB appreciation of hot money speculation. This section accounts for 60 percent of the total trade surplus. ...... according to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's exports in February total value of $ 82.097 billion, an increase of 51.7% "(<" fake foreign "reflux pushing the trade surplus>, Hong Kong," newspaper "March 15, 2007, p. 14).
47 For example, in 2006, "Chinese mainland's real estate market transaction amount up to $ 9 billion, of which up to 60% the proportion of foreign capital" (<property bubble threat to the global economy>, Hong Kong, "Asia Week" April 22, 2007, page 5 ).
48 "Many investors are willing to buy twenty thousand yuan a day to accumulate some yuan in bank accounts to receive less than a dime of interest as a long-term investment!" (Lin Jianxin: <RMB bonds "Everything is difficult beginning,">, Hong Kong, "newspaper "April 3, 2007, page 27).
49. In early 2007, Standard Chartered Bank report, "eventually stop the growth of foreign exchange reserves is to make the outflow of funds, the expected amount of foreign exchange outflows this year will not be too much, before the end of the year will reach $ 1.4 trillion foreign exchange reserves" (<Chartered feed foreign reserve Continued growth>, Hong Kong, "newspaper" January 18, 2007, p. 4).
Mainland China in GDP 182321 502 005 million yuan, the stock market value of 3.243 trillion, the stock market value is lower than 4.3522 trillion 2001 GDP 95933 billion (or the National Bureau of Statistics: "People's Republic of China 2005 National Economic and Social Development Statistics Bulletin," February 2006 28, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/t20060227 _ 402307796.htm).
512 007 the end of March, "financial institutions RMB deposit balance 35.42 trillion yuan" (<$ 1.2 trillion foreign exchange reserves to break>, Hong Kong, "newspaper" April 13, 2007, p. 6). "The end of 2006 to 16.42 trillion deposits of residents" (<central bank financial regulation will be overweight>, Hong Kong, "newspaper" January 22, 2007, page 24).
52 in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares' market value in size from 2005 to 3.1017 trillion yuan rose to 8.7992 trillion yuan at the end of 2006, an increase of 183.69%. " January 9, 2007, breaking the ten trillion yuan (<A 股市值突破十万亿元>, Hong Kong, "newspaper" January 11, 2007, p. 10). "As at December 17 just 10 trading days, the Chinese stock, the number of new accounts fund has reached 1.3 million, an average of 130,000 accounts every day!" (Chen Yan: <shoes Tong · stock> Hong Kong, "Economic Journal "January 23, 2007, p. 28). "According to the" Shanghai Securities News "reported that in the first quarter of the new A-share accounts, more than five million, compared to the mainland A shares added 3.08 million accounts last year, in 2005 the annual number of new accounts only 850,000 The number of last year's daily ten thousand new households, compared with the first quarter of the increase in the average daily new households keep a level of 8 to 100 000 "(<mainland investors to enter the market in the first quarter of hundreds of billions>, Hong Kong "Journal," April 24, 2007, p. 7).
53 Greider says (Susan Rand: "Mad Money" on page 128).
54 "January-November 2006, the national public security organs established 653 cases of illegal deposits from the public, involving 26.3 billion yuan; 841 vertical financial fraud cases, involving 1.8 billion yuan" (<18 ministries and commissions under the State Council with hand siege illegal fund-raising > Hong Kong, "newspaper" February 6, 2007, p. 24).
552,005 in August the former Bank of China vice chairman Liu Jinbao was sentenced to death, suspended for two years. Liu Jinbao "is a household name in Hong Kong - Hong Kong in Hong Kong dollars are still used on" Liu Jinbao "handwritten signature" (<Liu Jinbao greedy lust corrupt insider>, Hong Kong, "newspaper" September 25, 2006, 26 page).
56 See recommendation Kaylee: "feeling the stones, where shore? "
73 'Scholes (M. Scholes) is one of the authors of option pricing on Black - Scholes formula, the big name on Wall Street because almost everyone knows "(Lawrence Meyer:" Fed Years "on page 141 ). LTCM after finished, "that he and former long-term capital management company as director of IN TRADITIONAL Tokyo office and together, employed entrepreneurs for the Texas Bass Management Fund" (Roger Lowenstein: "those who bet "on page 275).
741 997 issue of the "October, an exciting news reached LTCM: Robert Merton and Scholes 马尔隆 won the 1997 Nobel Prize in Economics was lecturing at Harvard University by Robert Merton! the students up to three minutes of clapping and cheering. ...... "Wall Street Journal" is considered one of the authors, Robert Merton and Scholes, Nobel prize Maer Long enough to prove that, "Wall Street Journal" for a long time Has been advocating belief is correct, "the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences presented the conclusions are very clear: the market is efficient." "less than a year, the Nobel Prize was publicly slapped a record crisp slap in the face! "Robert Merton more worried about is that the academic status of the collapse of Long Term Capital Fund, will be a modern financial theory as well as his personal hardships to get in this area, resulting in a very heavy blow. Although he was very reluctantly By default, the model was indeed invented their own failure; but he still insists, is now more urgent need to do one thing, as soon as possible to design a more accurate, more complex models. "In fact," If we say that Wall Street can be. What lessons from long-term capital funding crisis, then, this is the next time, if we have a Robert Merton proposed a manageable risk and predictive probability model, and if re-emergence of one has enough memory, you can complete to computer data stored in the past, investors should do one thing most quickly ran to the opposite side. "(Roger Lowenstein:" those who bet "on page 140 to 141,268 , 285).
75 Nevertheless, Scholes decided, not to the Nobel Prize he won $ 500,000 investment in LTCM. Nevertheless, until August 1998, before the collapse of Long Term Capital Management a few days, "the financial sector all people, are still on the long-term capital fund this flagship, feel very envious, very respected. As long as the mention of the long-term capital funds, "genius" and "Do not think different" kind of praise, will be spewing out. For the general public, the people do not fully understand the long-term capital funds, but in the circle, in the name of long-term capital fund head is surprisingly large, outsize "(Roger Lowenstein:" those who bet "on page 97,141,144,175).
76 For example, to strengthen the supervision of the first requirement is that the information disclosure, improve the so-called "transparency." "New York Times" objective reports: "Americans are the first accounts of transparency requirements, the Bank of Thailand to conceal the origin of the discovery of the true data, these data will warn the international financial crisis, investors in Thailand, but some Asian leaders do not think so They argue that the financial crisis was caused by currency speculators, many of these currency speculators from the United States. They more way to know the truth, the more enhanced the courage speculation on the monetary value of a new round of attack "(" Rubin to press central banks to disclosefinancial date ", New York Times, 1997 年 9 19, on page D5).
Similarly, different story.
"Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke with extreme caution. His opinion even if it is irrelevant, can cause volatility through financial markets. On one occasion, he met the Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt at the Kennedy Center.
"How are you, Alan? "
"I can not tell you. "Greenspan joked" (Rafael · Batra: "Greenspan Quotations" title page).
The Fed's comments were "out of something is well designed, carefully worded to consider what information is to be disclosed, what information you want to hide, but that is not expressly provide complete. This makes it an opportunity to express a lot of words to support people's confidence in the economy, At the same time these statements must be sufficiently ambiguous "(Stiglitz, Greenwald:" leading to a new paradigm of monetary economics "242 ~ 243).
94 "China Steel Industry Association executive vice president Luo said yesterday that the iron content of 51.1% is calculated according to China's annual production of pig iron to the use of imported iron ore, ...... Last year, China imported iron ore 326.3033 million tons" (<ore More than half rely on imports>, Hong Kong, "newspaper" February 3, 2007, p. 21).
952,005 years, the mainland "to export electric fan 540,440,000 units, DVD 14594 million units, export all kinds of 6.9136 billion pairs of shoes." (<Chinese economy is facing surplus produce comprehensive>, Hong Kong, "newspaper" November 26, 2006, the first 7).
96 Bo Xilai said in 2006, "the global anti-dumping cases, 37% involve Chinese enterprises" (<Bo refers to the high-tariff trade hegemony>, Hong Kong, "newspaper" March 13, 2007, page 8) . Many developing countries, China's exports enthusiastically sanctions (F Yi: <from "ally" of trade challenges>, "Finance" May 15, 2006, the first 88 to 91).
97 key western development is determined to give full play to the government unshirkable leadership and organization capabilities. Market regulation does not mean laissez-faire. For example, to the east of Helan Mountain, Mu Us Desert (past Ordos grassland), Hunshandake desert (Xilin Gol Grassland south), Horqin Sandy (past Horqin grassland), there is a certain rainfall and abundant groundwater resources, currently dispersed ecological construction, the lack of large-scale development-governmental organizations. For example, the core of the western development project is a large-scale water diversion to the west. No diversion, Northwest existing population size and productivity are unable to maintain, let alone develop? Mass of water resources and land improvement, not private enterprise profit motive whatever (see Deng Ying recommend scouring, Wang Xiaoqiang, Cui Heming, Yang double: "Reengineering China"; Deng Ying Amoy, Kaylee, Cui Heming: "Western Development Strategy").
98 See recommendation Kaylee: "feeling the stones, where shore? . "
991,998 years, the Guangdong Province to resolve the financial crisis, "three-step", Wang Qishan repeated statements, bold "cutting down trees to save the forest," are "no choice choice" (Kaylee: "feeling the stones confusion" 209 ~ 262).
100 in trade, in 2001, exports 12 euro member states accounted for 17.7% of the world total, higher than the US (14.7%) (Zhu Zeqing: <strong euro has created a new era>, Hong Kong, "Economic Digest" January 5, 2002, the first 14 to 17). "In the international bank loan, the euro zone accounted for 20% of the world market, while the US accounted for 36 percent, twice the euro zone is basically in bonds, the euro zone should a little more, it's a ratio of 24%, while dollar-denominated bonds accounted for 45%. ...... In currency markets, the dollar accounted for almost half, while the euro accounted for about a quarter of the global reserve currency, the dollar is more important, the dollar reserve account about 70%, while the euro reserves of only 11%. "(Christopher Johnson: <European and global in Euro>, Mondale, Zach:" monetary stability and economic growth, "page 49). Another argument, "according to IMF statistics, official foreign exchange reserves by the end of 1999 all of its member countries in the 12.5% for the euro, the dollar accounted for 66% over the same period, the yen accounted for 5%, 4% sterling, Swiss franc accounting 1% "in 1999, the euro accounted for 43% of total international issuance of bonds, the dollar accounted for 46% (Wang He:" European Economic and Monetary Union, "p. 255,219).
101 "Therefore we can expect over the next decade, the euro area will include 40 to 50 countries, will be close to half a billion population, its GDP will exceed the sum of US GDP. ...... So, in about 2010, the euro and the dollar will to keep pace, the central bank will choose half and half dollar euro reserve structure "(Mundell: <Sixth Jazz Robbins Memorial Lecture: reform of the international monetary system>, Mondale, Zach:" monetary stability and economic growth. " 8 to 10). According to International Monetary Fund 2002 Annual Report, "Surprisingly, the birth of the euro and the dollar does not weaken the advantage in the international reserves held by share. Table 9.1 also shows that the share of the euro in 1999 and 2000 in the official foreign exchange reserves not much more than the sum of the euro in January 1999 before the birth of the original currencies, including Mark, franc and Dutch guilder Although regional integration in the euro currency has been very successful, but the dollar still occupy the dominant position "in the international financial sector (Ronald I. McKinnon: <East Asian exchange rate dilemma and the world dollar standard>, the Asian Development Bank: "Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia," the first 290 to 291).
2,001,994, the eve of the 65th birthday Soros, the Hungarian government awarded him the Medal 一枚 praise civilians. Biographer reports that it "seems to set his frustration as a furnace" (Robert Slater: "Soros Tornado" on page 417). 201 Jing Wu: "Zhen Guan" on page 22.
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